From energy security to the diaspora the Congress MP breaks down the high stakes of the Iran-Israel escalation and explains why the party is questioning the Prime Minister’s recent diplomatic moves.
The ‘Extended Neighbourhood’ in Flux
strikes in Iran and the killing of its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have sent shockwaves across the globe. For India the impact is big. Manish Tewari, a Congress leader and member of the Parliamentary Committee on External Affairs says the Middle East is India’s “extended neighbourhood.”
Here are the numbers: India imports 90% of its oil and natural gas. A lot of that supply comes from the Persian Gulf. If there is a problem in the Gulf it affects India’s energy security.
- Any action that makes the Middle East unstable will affect India’s energy security.
- The era of viewing these conflicts as ideological is over. Now it is a matter of survival.
For India the stakes are high. Over 9 million Indians. Work in the Gulf region. If there is a war it will be a humanitarian challenge. The safety of Indians abroad is at risk.
The Myth of the ‘Two-Trillion Dollar’ Solution
Manish Tewari does not think military-led regime changes work. He compares the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- Unilateral and coercive regime change has never worked.
- History shows that changes from within lead to stability. External changes lead to decades of problems.
Tewari thinks the US needs to rethink its strategy. The idea that striking Iran will prevent proliferation is flawed. Such strikes often make things worse.
The Historical Shadow: From 1948 to the Present
To understand the situation Tewari says we need to look back at the Middle East’s history after World War I. The region has been unstable for over a century.
- The non-implementation of a two-state solution for Palestinians in 1948 created problems.
- Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution the regional dynamic has been defined by a standoff between Iran, Israel and the Gulf monarchies.
Accountability and the ‘Strategic Continuum’
The Congress party recently criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel. This was before the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
- The critique is about “equilibrium” and the perception of alignment.
- India has a continuum of supporting a two-state solution and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.
Tewari argues that PM Modi should have clearly stated India’s position. He warns that any perceived shift toward a ” alignment” undermines Indias moral standing.
The Path Forward: Diplomacy Over ‘Armadas
As the crisis deepens Tewari’s solution is rooted in the UN Charter. He cites the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 as an example of change through the will of the people.
- For India the immediate priority must be de-escalation.
- India must leverage its position to push for a return to the negotiating table.
- In a world with problems the only anchor for Indian foreign policy is a commitment, to international law and the rejection of coercive diplomacy. Read More
